The July numbers for real estate sales here in Waterloo Region point to a continuing trend of increased affordability and selection for home buyers. While sales volumes are on par with last July’s market, prices are not, with some sectors down significantly.
As for selection, buyers now have plenty of choice, with only semi-detached remaining in seller category. Detached and towns are neutral, with apartment style condos solidly in buyer market territory, with over 6 months of inventory.
Active listings were 73% above the 10 year average for July 2025 at 2275, in comparison with 641 sales for the month here in Waterloo Region. Those sales figures are somewhat middle of the pack, down 12% compared to the 10 year figure.
July and August are typically slower months due to weather and holidays so it isn’t really a surprise we saw some reductions in price, however, the drop in apt style condos is relatively recent and sharp. There has been a lot of recent change in our immigration numbers that is certainly making investors reluctant to enter the rental space.
Conversely, semis have held up quite well, down only slightly on the month and the year. These properties are almost entirely freehold, unlike the townhouse market which is 50/50 condo vs. freehold. For towns, prices are down a bit more compared to June but are down the same amount on the year as semis.
Detached saw some bigger drops, down 7% on the year. Homes are trading at the lower end of the mid 9’s to mid 8’s range we’ve seen over the past few years. Month over month, prices were down 40k. There was a similar but bigger drop of 70k in July 2023 in comparison, so again, somewhat typical for the summer months.
The Bank of Canada has left rates unchanged once again in the face of uncertainty down south. We seem to be weathering the storm reasonably well despite Trump’s best efforts to cripple us. But the spectre of inflation and sluggish economic growth is already being felt, a double edged sword that makes it difficult to boost the economy without worsening inflation.
While mortgage rates are considerably lower than last year, they are slightly higher than the rates available to buyers in the early spring, a direct consequence of the uncertainty Trump has brought to the housing market.
Sales activity is a mixed bag across the Region, with pre-con and apt condo sales very slow indeed. Marginal properties in every segment are seeing little to no interest unless they are priced exceptionally low, and even then, many are sitting on the market unsold. Homes that are in great shape, particularly in the starter segment are seeing brisk activity including bidding wars. Several of my clients have had to deal with this in order to purchase a home.
As is usual, I expect August to be slow as well, with activity picking up after Labour Day. Our fall market will certainly be busier than the summer and I think we’ll see some increases on a month over month basis. However I don’t think these gains will surpass prices from last fall. Slow is the new normal.
